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№166970, 2026-11-10 11:15:12 підтримати
Dmytro

Інвест банк Piper Sandler про базові очікування від американської політики (як завжди, реальність виявиться іншою, але очікування такі):

The Red America Rebellion

As bad as the defeat for the GOP appears at first blush, it looks worse the deeper you dig down. President Trump is not going to change course, so the vast majority of the drivers for last Tuesday’s outcome are unlikely to improve and many of them are going to get worse over the next two years. For that reason, GOP aides and former high-level staffers we spoke with in the last few days expect the GOP to lose the White House and more Senate seats in 2028. Despite the scale of the GOP losses, the obvious reasons for it, and the dire outlook for the GOP, for now it appears most Republicans in Congress are more afraid of a Trump-orchestrated primary than a general election defeat and therefore will be cautious about criticizing or voting against the administration.

The policy bear market is likely to get worse. In the near term, investors should prepare for Trump to get more aggressive, which could pose downside risks for the economy and financial markets. Over the medium term (especially after the 2028 election), the base case is a much more progressive economic policy backdrop that will likely reduce corporate profits and potential GDP.

https://x.com/JimPethokoukis/status/2119...

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